scenario x
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The us Oil Independence: Lessons from history
Despite being the world’s top oil producer, the US still imports 7–8 million barrels daily due to refining constraints, cost efficiencies, and trade strategy. The 2014 shale boom boosted US output but triggered a global price war, exposing the risks of oversupply and volatility, especially if future policies push for increased drilling.
While energy independence could enhance security, challenges remain: high refining costs, trade tensions, and market instability. Scenario X forecasts that Trump’s policies could drive Brent crude prices down 28% by 2028.
How will shifting energy policies impact markets, refining capacity, and global trade? Download our full report to explore key insights and risk scenarios.
Will Trump's Protectionist Policies save or strain
the U.s. economy
As Donald Trump signals a return to aggressive tariffs, proposing levies up to 60% on Chinese goods and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, the global trade landscape braces for disruption. While tariffs have historically protected U.S. industries, they also risk escalating trade tensions, raising costs for businesses, and triggering retaliatory measures.
The U.S.-China trade imbalance, with a $1.1 trillion deficit, highlights the stakes. Trump’s strategy aims to reduce reliance on foreign imports, bolster domestic manufacturing, and reshape global trade relationships. However, tariffs on critical imports, such as rare earth minerals, could expose vulnerabilities, particularly in clean energy and technology sectors.
Will Trump’s tariff policies fuel economic resilience or spark another trade war? Download our full report to explore the risks, potential market shifts, and strategic insights for navigating this evolving landscape.
Saudi Vision 2030
Saudi Vision 2030 marks a transformative shift for Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East, steering the region toward stability, economic diversification, and global leadership. Spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the initiative reduces reliance on oil, historically 43% of GDP, and advances industries such as tourism, technology, and infrastructure.
Midway through its timeline, Saudi Arabia has achieved significant milestones, including a 50% non-oil GDP contribution, $749 billion in Public Investment Fund (PIF) assets, and a reduced unemployment rate of 7.7%. Hosting the 2034 FIFA World Cup further cements its rising global stature. However, challenges persist, with GDP and foreign direct investment (FDI) falling short of targets.
If successful, Vision 2030 could serve as a blueprint for regional peace and prosperity. Will Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation create lasting stability or introduce new geopolitical risks? Download our full report to explore potential market shifts and strategic insights for navigating this evolving landscape.
Gold's Enduring Legacy
Gold has long been a cornerstone of financial stability, serving as a hedge against inflation, volatility, and geopolitical risks. During crises like the 2008 financial meltdown and COVID-19, gold prices surged, reaffirming its role as a safe-haven asset. Central banks worldwide, including China and Russia, have been increasing gold reserves to mitigate economic risks, with 2022 marking a record high in purchases.
While cryptocurrencies offer high returns, they remain volatile and unpredictable, unlike gold’s historical stability. The inverse relationship between gold and interest rates suggests further price increases, with Goldman Sachs projecting $2,700 per ounce by 2025.
As financial uncertainty grows, Scenario X’s risk modeling highlights how gold has outperformed during past crises. Will gold remain a reliable safeguard, or will evolving market trends shift investment strategies? Download our full report to explore market risks, strategic insights, and portfolio diversification opportunities.
The new energy investment environment
The global energy landscape is shifting, with renewable energy investments nearly doubling those in fossil fuels and expected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030. China leads this transformation, contributing over 40% of global renewable additions since 2013, with 58% of new solar PV capacity in 2023. Despite this, EMDEs account for only 15% of clean energy spending, raising concerns about global energy dependence.
China dominates not just solar and wind but also critical minerals essential for green technology, controlling 80% of global solar manufacturing. This influence extends to trade policies, where it restricts exports of key minerals while expanding EV production, outpacing competitors like Tesla. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU are securing supply chains through regulatory and diplomatic strategies.
With geopolitical tensions rising, Scenario X helps investors navigate risks and seize opportunities in this evolving market. Download our full report for deeper insights into the future of clean energy investments.
Dedollarization
For decades, the U.S. dollar has dominated global finance, but rising debt and geopolitical shifts are challenging its hegemony. The end of the petrodollar agreement in June 2024 marks a pivotal moment, signaling a decline in the dollar’s grip on global trade. Meanwhile, BRICS nations are accelerating dedollarization, with China reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings by over 40% since 2015 and Russia eliminating nearly all U.S. assets from its reserves.
Japan’s Norinchukin Bank plans to sell $63 billion in U.S. bonds by 2025, while China’s recent $50 billion yuan swap with Saudi Arabia hints at a new financial order. However, European nations have increased U.S. Treasury holdings, offering some stability. If Europe shifts away, what happens next?
Scenario X provides in-depth risk assessments and actionable insights. Download our full report to explore how dedollarization could impact financial markets, and your portfolio.
Assessing the impact of the recent trump assassination attempt
The recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has sparked significant market reactions and political speculation. Historically, such events lead to brief market volatility, with previous incidents like Ronald Reagan’s 1981 assassination attempt seeing a quick recovery and a surge in political support. Similarly, Trump’s approval ratings have increased since the attempt, strengthening his political capital. This surge could influence his policies, particularly in finance, healthcare, and manufacturing, should his campaign gain momentum.
Despite a brief dip in market indices, the financial outlook suggests a possible initial decline in the S&P 500 if Trump wins the presidency, followed by recovery as political stability returns. With President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the Democratic field remains uncertain, with potential candidates like Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton gaining attention.
Scenario X provides comprehensive risk assessments to help investors prepare for this unpredictable political landscape. Download our full report to explore tailored insights and strategic recommendations.
June economic and financial insights
June saw major shifts in global financial markets, with hedge funds reversing their buying trends in European stocks following political instability in France. Despite this, European markets saw gains after strong performances on Wall Street, driven by optimism over potential U.S. interest rate cuts. In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its key interest rate to 1.25% to maintain inflation targets amid currency appreciation, while Switzerland also faced significant climate-related economic risks.
Meanwhile, U.S. job creation exceeded expectations, though unemployment ticked up to 4.1%. Japan reported record tax revenues but faced a dip in GDP, while Turkey’s inflation showed signs of easing due to aggressive monetary tightening.
Scenario X offers tailored insights to help you navigate these complex developments. Download our full report for an in-depth analysis on how global shifts could impact your financial strategy and risk management.